When I lost 100+ pounds on Weight Watchers, it took me 10 months and an average loss of 2.4 pounds per week. I gained it all back at about the same rate, since I was essentially living on a semi-starvation diet that was high in carbs and low in fat. When I stopped starving myself, the weight came back on. Now, I have found a better way, a dietary paradigm shift, a new, hopefully lifelong, way of eating. But at the same time, I am discovering that everything I thought I knew about weight loss is wrong.
Apparently, I will lose weight at a different rate than on Weight Watchers. During the first two weeks of the low carb diet, I lost 12 pounds, but it has slowed down considerably since then. I will probably lose less weight per week than I did on Weight Watchers, since I am not starving myself. Still, it was a question I wanted an answer to, so I did a bit of research. The What They Don't Tell You about Low Carb Diets web site has a section that suggests a man in my weight range will probably lose about six pounds per month on average. There are charts and graphs for men, women, and new dieters, and each graph is broken down into weight ranges. The more you weigh, the more you will probably lose, at least at first. As you get closer to your goal weight, your weight loss will slow.
So far, I have conformed to this pattern. After the initial, dramatic weight loss, I have slowed a bit. While my average over five weeks is still greater than three pounds per week, I expect that to gradually fall to the 1.5 pound per week mark. I am happy and content with that, as this is not a race to my goal weight, and I won't be changing the way I eat once I get there.
Because, in addition to losing weight, the low carb way of life has saved me from my type II diabetes curse. For that reason alone I would follow the plan, even if I didn't lose weight. Losing weight is just icing on the cake.